This election cycle it was déjà vu all over again: Much like in 2016, in 2020 pollsters often underestimated Donald Trump’s support in critical swing states. There is no state where this was more evident than Florida where the much-followed fivethirtyeight.com gave Biden a 2.2% lead and a 2 in 3 chance of winning the state. Instead, Trump trounced Biden in Florida with three times the margin by which he beat Hillary in 2016. How did the pollsters replicate, and sometimes amplify, the inaccuracies of 2016? It’s too early to definitively say, but we can make some reasonable guesses. In 2020, pollsters overestimated Biden’s support among non-college degree whites, and they also underestimated the voter turnout by this group. It was thought that Biden would draw from this group better than Hillary Clinton, but it appears that was not the case. Biden similarly underperformed among seniors when compared to the poll data. Intriguingly, there is also some data to suggest the “shy Trump voters” grew in number. A poll released after the election showed 1 in 5 Trump voters kept their vote secret from friends, and the single largest cohort among this group are white suburban women; a group that was supposed to go overwhelmingly for Biden.
Vaccine plan begins to thaw.
Most people know that two Covid-19 vaccine candidates have proven to be effective and could be ready for distribution as soon as next month. What many don’t understand are the complex logistics involved in transporting, distributing, storing and administering a two-dose Pfizer vaccine that requires deep cold storage well beyond the capabilities of most health care facilities. The first details of those logistical plans are now being revealed, as Governor Ron DeSantis took to YouTube today to announce that five Florida hospitals (Tampa General Hospital, Memorial Regional Hospital in Hollywood, Jackson Memorial Hospital in Miami, AdventHealth Orlando and UF Health Jacksonville) have been selected to receive the first shipments next month pending FDA approval. Additionally, the Governor referenced an announcement from Moderna earlier this week that its vaccine, while also a two-dose regimen, is now proving capable of stable storage for up to 30 days in a standard refrigerator and 6 months in a normal freezer. While the Pfizer vaccine will likely be hitting arms first, Moderna’s storage breakthrough is almost as big as the development of the vaccine itself.
School daze.
News broke this week that New York City Public Schools would be closing the doors to their brick and mortar option and returning to fully online as Covid-19 case counts continue to rise. In Florida, the State Board of Education met this week and discussed extending flexibility to allow distance learning into the next semester. In June, Commissioner Corcoran issued an emergency order that allowed schools to offer both an in-person or online option for the delivery of education without impacting their funding. That order is now set to expire at the end of the Fall semester. The Department is planning to issue a second emergency order before Thanksgiving that will be focused on three priorities: flexibility and stability for school districts, safe communities for all stakeholders, and ensuring parents have the best learning choices available. The new order is expected to extend the flexibility for school districts to offer online options for their students while also including stricter language around student learning gains.
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Tallahassee Bay County Launching Feasibility Study on Reopening of the Old Pass Read more here →
Tampa Bay Tampa General one of Florida’s First Hospitals to Receive Coronavirus Vaccine Read more here →
Jacksonville JAA Plans 2,000-Acre Commerce Center Near Jacksonville International Airport Read more here →
Miami Power Shift in Miami-Dade Politics: New Mayor, New Commissioners, New Agenda Read more here →
Orlando Orlando's Future-Ready City plan to make commutes easier and rewarding Read more here →
Florida Keys Changing of the Guard: New Mayor Installed, New City Manager Soon Read more here →
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