Florida Lottery meet Davis, Davis meet Florida Lottery.
Florida Lottery added a new name on Monday, when Governor DeSantis appointed John Davis as Secretary to lead the multi-billion dollar earning agency. Davis is replacing Randall Hunt, who resigned at the beginning of this year after a two-month appointment. Davis has held various positions throughout his political career, including serving as DCF’s external affairs director and as an executive within the Republican Party of Florida. His experience extends past state government with stints in the private sector as president for JFD Consulting Group, a company he built, and executive vice president of the Orlando Chamber. And something no one can forget, Davis played defensive back for Florida State University’s football team in the 90’s, which was highlighted by his crucial interception in the 1990 Blockbuster Bowl against Penn State. Go Noles! (That was for Paul Mitchell)
US Senate projections.
As Election Day rapidly approaches, much of Florida’s attention has been fixated on whether President Donald Trump will reclaim the Sunshine’s State’s 29 electoral votes. But with the Presidential election just one week away, the majority in the US Senate is very much up-in-the-air. Democratic senate candidates have been outperforming Republicans financially throughout the cycle, placing traditionally safe Republican seats like South Carolina, Kansas and Georgia in play. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats in order to hold to a majority. Polling suggests Democrats are likely to lose Senator Doug Jones of Alabama, who won a special election to fill Jeff Sessions’ vacated seat in 2017. Should Joe Biden win the Presidency, Vice President Kamala Harris would become the tie-breaking vote in the Senate, making a three-seat Democratic gain enough to flip the Senate. Without a Biden victory, four Senate victories will be needed. In 2016, every state Trump won also elected a Republican US Senator. It remains to be seen if down-ballot votes will continue this year. Watching Colorado and Arizona will be essential. Spending data and polling in both states suggest very close races, and both could decide the partisan nature of the Senate, which just yesterday voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the United State Supreme Court.
It’s all about turnout.
We’re still one week from Election Day, and as of happy hour today more than 6.75 million Floridians had already voted (2.8 million DEM, 2.54 million GOP, 1.45 million NPA/Others). That’s about 47% of all registered voters statewide and around 70% of the total 2016 electorate. It’s a similar story nationally, with early and absentee ballots cast so far well-surpassing those of the entire 2016 cycle. The numbers initially skewed heavily Democratic as absentee ballots began coming in, but Republicans have started to catch up since the start of in-person early voting. In Florida, Democrats have seen their initial turnout advantage steadily erode during the past week from 470,000 to about 250,000. Among low-propensity voters, Democrats are experiencing stronger turnout than Republicans. The GOP, however, has the greater number of high-propensity voters who have yet to cast ballots. This signals two important things: enthusiasm could be motivating Democrats to vote earlier, but Republicans should continue to close the turnout gap between now and Election Day. It’s still likely that Democrats enter November 3 with a turnout advantage, but who emerges on top once all ballots are counted remains fodder for debate. Which way the NPA/other voting category swings will also have a huge impact on the final outcome. In typical Florida fashion, we could be in for a nail-biter.
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