Joe Biden continues to enjoy a sizeable lead over Donald Trump in national polls. Currently Biden is about +10.6 points. In the top battleground states Biden is averaging +3.8. In Florida, Biden is narrowly besting Trump by +2.4. But, are these polls accurate? Pollsters will tell you they’ve adjusted their sampling methodology to cure the defects in 2016 presidential polling. But, perhaps a better sign that the polls might be more accurate in this election is that they are generally aligning with the hundreds of congressional district polls around the country. These small polls are not closely scrutinized for their presidential data, and they’re often more accurate because pollsters don’t try to drive the numbers to a specific outcome. Of course, it’s 270 votes in the Electoral College that ultimately elect a president, and if you want to play around with the possibilities, here’s a nifty interactive simulation.
Judge Amy.
Around 7:30 this evening, the Senate is expected to vote to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. While it is all but assured that Barrett will be confirmed, it will be interesting to see if any of the Republican senators facing tough reelection campaigns vote no in a late move to try to appeal to moderates on the right and left. Vice President Pence, who previously stated he would “not miss that vote for the world,” is not expected to preside over the vote, ceding to Democrats demands that his presence in the Chamber would violate CDC recommendation due to the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak among his close staff.
Covid-19 could be on the rise again in Florida.
Today the Florida Department of Health announced 3,377 new Covid-19 cases, bringing the state’s total cases to 782,013 (the third highest in the nation). Today’s caseload is relatively close to the average daily count for the past few weeks, but it is unusually high for a Monday report, which typically account for some of the lowest numbers of positive cases. The most recent Monday report to add more than 3,000 cases was August 10. To date, the Health Department has recorded 16,652 fatalities from the disease. Hospitalizations are also on the rise as concerns grow over bed capacity in some of Florida’s smaller counties. The number climbed for its fourth consecutive day, reaching 2,255 this afternoon, a rise of 36 compared to Sunday. Last week the White House Coronavirus Task Force sent a report to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warning of rising caseloads, a need for increased testing statewide, and a sharp increase in daily hospitalizations, with 95% of Florida hospitals reporting new confirmed or suspected Covid-19 patients each day. The report added that more than half of all counties in Florida have moderate or high levels of community transmission.
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