Central Florida may finally have the long awaited missing link to its transportation infrastructure. Miami-based high-speed rail Brightline and Central Florida commuter rail SunRail are in negotiations to form a partnership extending the commuter rail line to Orlando International Airport. As part of a proposed expansion to Tampa, Brightline is seeking a resolution of support which would allow for a shared track connection with SunRail to Orlando International. The proposal will be up for consideration at the October 29 Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission meeting and would include a 28-mile shared east/west corridor. The targeted construction completion date would be 2024 or earlier. Brightline's $2.7 billion expansion from Orlando to West Palm Beachwas a third of the way done as of Julyand completion is expected in 2022. Brightline proposes to kick off construction in 2022 on its Tampa expansion with a three-year build period, subject to necessary approvals.
Stimulus stalemate?
Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has allegedly advised the White House against passing another round of stimulus before the November 3election. The report contradicted claims made earlier by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who stressed Congress and the White House were “closer to an agreement” on the total value of the relief package. House Democrats refuse to pass anything less than $2 trillion in aid, while Senate Republicans are proposing a $500 billion relief package. President Trump has signaled a willingness to approve a larger package than Senate Republicans are comfortable passing. Under pressure, McConnell said to reporters yesterday, “if a presidentially supported bill clears the House at some point, we’ll bring it to the floor.” Senate Republicans are also concerned that the debate (and passage) of another stimulus bill would detract from the President’s timetable to confirm Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the US Supreme Court. It’s growing more and more likely that this fourth round of Covid-19 relief will be passed by the lame duck congress, after the 2020 election.
Biden’s path to electoral victory.
Yesterday we looked at a theoretical path to victory for Donald Trump. Today, we’ll explore a potential path to electoral victory for Joe Biden. If polls are accurate, or even inaccurate in exactly the way they were that missed the Trump electoral victory in 2016, Biden is better positioned than Hillary Clinton to win at least 270 electoral votes. In fact, current polls show Biden begins with a base of 290 electoral votes. Currently, Pennsylvania is the tipping point state for Biden that puts him over that line, and he enjoys a 6-point lead in that state. In addition, Biden has a lead, albeit a smaller one, in Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia; states that aren’t necessary for a Biden victory but ones that would add to his margin of victory. The major reach state for Biden is Texas where Trump is currently winning by 1.1%. If electoral votes are assigned based on where a candidate is winning by 3 or more points, Biden currently has a 335 to 125 lead over Trump. If pollsters are as off in their calculations in the 2020 cycle as they were in 2016, Biden would win 319 electoral votes and Trump would win 219. We’re pretty sure the polls are inaccurate to some degree, and in two weeks we’ll know the magnitude of that inaccuracy.
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