From a polling perspective, one of the most amazing aspects of this campaign is the relative stability of the national polls despite unprecedented upheaval caused by external events; a pandemic, impeachment, a Supreme Court pick, the economy crashing. In February, Joe Biden had a 6-point lead over Donald Trump. As recently as September 22, Biden still had a 6-point lead over Donald Trump. In recent weeks Biden has gapped higher in national polls, now enjoying an average 10-point lead. But still, Hillary Clinton enjoyed a 6.6% polling advantage over Trump on this very day in 2016, and ultimately Trump won. The major question—and the answer is unknown—is whether 2020 polls have corrected for the deficiencies in the 2016 polling methodology. In other words, are pollsters in 2020 compensating in their models for the “shy” Trump voter, the unprecedented high turnout of white non-college educated voters, and the non-responsive voters who simply won’t answer a pollster’s questions? We’ll let you know on November 4.
Early voting kicks off across most of Florida today.
Long lines and a steady flow of voters have been reported throughout the state. With polls open, Republicans are expecting to see a shift in the turnout numbers. So far 2.5 million Florida absentee ballots have been cast. Democrats are outpacing Republicans with 1.2 million ballots or 49%, while Republicans have turned in about 757,000 ballots or 30%. If we look back to the 2016 election, Republicans did better than Democrats with absentee voting. 1.1 million or 41% of absentee ballots cast came from Republicans, compared to the 1 million or 38% of Democratic ballots. Today is only the first day of early in-person voting. In 2016, Democrats outvoted Republicans early with 1.5 million ballots or 40% of the early voting totals, compared to the 1.4 million or 37% of early voting ballots from Republicans. This year polls show the majority of Democrats plan to vote early, while the majority of Republicans plan to vote in-person on Election Day. So, drawing conclusions from early voting patterns can produce erroneous assumptions about the ultimate outcome on November 3.
Covid-19 jumps in Europe and the US.
Some European leaders are facing opposition to coronavirus mitigation measures in the face of a growing second wave of the virus. The efforts of individual nations to lock down regions via curfews, travel restrictions, and capacity limits are being met with resistance by some local governments and local citizens who are reaching the limits of their patience with the persistent virus. Multiple nations are negotiating with city and regional leaders in an effort to provide clear guidance to their citizens. In some instances, the disputes are tied to funding aka the need for it before individual cities or regional governments will agree to lock down which will stifle their local economies. A rundown of current European restrictions can be found here. In the US, the 7-day average Covid case count climbed back up to 56,000 cases a day, a nationwide volume not seen since the first week of August. In Florida, we’re still seeing far fewer new cases than during our peak in July, but the number of positives could be signaling troublesome growth. “You can’t say Florida is in any way out of the woods or at no risk for an increase in infections,” observed Harvard Immunology & Infectious Disease Professor Roger Shapiro to the Miami-Herald.
Tallahassee Eglin Squadron Officially Becomes Part of U.S. Space Force Read more here →
Tampa Bay Early In-Person Voting Begins In Tampa Bay: Here’s Where You Can Cast Your Ballot Read more here →
Jacksonville JAX Chamber Exceeding Employment and Investment Targets Read more here →
Miami Florida Voters Get Up Before Dawn – and Wait – to Vote Early Read more here →
Orlando City Into MLS Playoffs for 1st Time in Club History Read more here →
Florida Keys I.CARE Cleanup Showcases How Everything is Connected to Our Oceans Read more here →
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