Every two years The Southern Group hosts Convergence, a political summit that brings together clients and pundits for a frank discussion of current events and campaigns.Today we were enlightened and entertained by Senator Rick Santorum and Republican strategist Mike Murphy.In this election cycle Santorum is a Trump proponent and Murphy is running an anti-Trump PAC primarily aimed at undecided voters in Florida.Our experts noted the differences in the electorate and polling methods between 2016 and 2020.Santorum, a native of Pennsylvania, believes that his home state harbors deep support for Trump and will go into his column on election night.Murphy boldly predicted Biden will win Florida and ultimately the presidential contest.Both predicted that if Biden wins the presidency and Democrats flip the Senate they will immediately overreach with an aggressive agenda and give Republicans a new opening in the near future.The second installment of our Convergence event is a week from today and will feature a post-election analysis by Karl Rove and Paul Begala.Make sure to contact your Southern lobbyist if you’re interested in a true insider’s look at the 2020 election.
How has polling changed since 2016?
Prior to 2016, college educated and non-college educated whites tended to vote in lockstep, but in 2016 that alignment diverged and non-college educated whites broke toward Donald Trump. This revealed a flaw in polling methodology, and some pollsters were embarrassed by their confident prediction of a Clinton victory. This election cycle, pollsters are being more cautious and revising their methodology to eliminate some of the blind spots from 2016. Education level is now a factor being given weight, and so is the difference between rural, urban, suburban, and exurban voters. Pollsters have also gotten more creative in their methods for reaching likely voters, relying not just on calling land lines but also dialing cell phones and connecting online and through snail mail. Pollsters note that this cycle may be less volatile in the last week because the number of undecided voters has been cut in half compared to 2016, but also note that the unprecedented reliance on vote-by-mail could introduce a distortion in the projections for which they have not fully accounted.
The Panera voter.
With five days until the election, “suburban women” are proving to be a formidable voting bloc potentially changing the political landscape. White suburban men haven’t stopped backing Trump; polls show him winning them 57% to Biden’s 41%. But, national and state surveys show that Biden, on average, is polling around 25 points better than Trump among women. If Biden’s margin holds on Election Day, it would make it the biggest gender gap for a Democrat candidate in history.A late October midwestern state poll from Foxshowed suburban women preferring Biden by 35% in Michigan, 29% in Pennsylvania, and 21% in Wisconsin. The story about suburban women in 2020 isn’t just about them voting for a Democrat presidential candidate. More broadly, it’s about a new wave of women-led grassroots organizing impacting future races for years.
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